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The United States how to deal with the slow appreciation of the renminbi  

2011-04-24 21:42:02|  分类: 随笔 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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 The United States Bridgewater Associates of large hedge funds founder and chief investment long Ray Dalio recently forecast, in the next 18 months, global currency market will experience "the sky were to fall" changes. Some emerging countries such as China and Brazil wait for their low leverage and high savings rates and rapid economic development and the appreciation of their currencies testimony. And the United States, the European Union and Japan in the developed economies, such as the currency will face fell.

According to the forecast Dalio, the exchange rate reform will bring 29generations bretton woods than 1971 international monetary system collapse that scale concussion.

There is reason to believe that the Chinese government will not easily, they try to prevent the yuan to rise sharply.

Since yuan reform in 2005, the currency has risen by 25%. Although most of the appreciation of the renminbi from before the financial crisis in 2008, but since last summer, the yuan from experienced in an orderly way again slowly appreciate.

In the past year, the White House and China from the requirements within the renminbi's voice.

Recently, Chinese academy of social sciences and some of the development research center of the state council to Chinese government researchers also proposed to let the yuan rise 10% of advice. One-time They point out that one-off rise sharply can effectively restrained hyperinflation and reduce raw material price, and the Chinese government have concern for the export trade wouldn't suffered a sharp appreciation Waterloo slide.

Even so, China's government may continue to refuse the yuan has appreciated significantly, for three reasons:

A, yuan appreciation actually increased rather than decreased China's trade surplus with the United States

From 2005 to 2008, during the remittance change between China and the us from the trade surplus rose to $1142 1709 billion dollars. Although trade surplus in 2009 fell to $1434, but the main reason is the financial crisis prompted American become thrift, know how to tighten purse.

Second, 1985 between the United States and Japan signed plaza accord didn't solve the trade imbalance between the two countries

For the Japanese economy plaza accord hit let China government fresh, China doesn't want to repeat. In 1984, namely Japan and the United States signed the plaza accord, a year before Japan's global trade surplus for 336 billion dollars, this among them, have $331 the surplus from the United States.

Between 1985 and 1987, namely after the plaza accord signed by the two years of the dollar and the yen percent, but this didn't solve the problems of trade between the two countries. Arrived in 1992, Japan's trade ShunChaE reached $1066.

In 1984, Japan's trade surplus 1.43% of GDP, is by 2006, that figure rises to 6.19%. Obviously, the Japanese yen appreciation to the trade imbalance between the u.s.-japan did not make any difference, but causing serious blow to Japanese economy.

Third, the slow appreciation for China's own development

At present, Chinese exports to the United States for most of the commodity still low value-added products such as clothing and shoes, etc, these products are usually lower gross margin exporters to 5% or lower. Although the Chinese government understands that these manufacturers will eventually gradually migrated to Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia these countries with lower labor costs, but the Chinese government to better understand just monetary slight appreciation, could precipitate millions of unemployed workers.

Although the Chinese government is trying to transform it into a supported by domestic demand, but this needs time economy, more haste, less speed.

From China's point of view, this allows the renminbi to "slow" appreciation strategy so far have been very effective. Since last June to January, the yuan has risen by 3%, but the same average Chinese stronger-than-expected 31.9% on exports.

In the United States, and how to treat the yuan has appreciated slowly?

Let me feel very confused is, why the U.S. government don't care about the fundamental interests of the people of country? Although bush and Obama two administrations are strongly urging yuan appreciation, but they are more like a strong attitude edentulate tiger, and hadn't brought much effect.

Nowadays more and more in the United States, more strong voice calling the White House put pressure on Beijing. American investors Paul; la racaille, Tudor Jones (Jones) for a letter to investors in a recent letter, says the U.S. government should make RMB and hk $stop against the dollar. Could the U.S. government interventions in the currency markets do this, like other countries to the United States do.

This will make the unemployment rate in U.S. improved, and improve the U.S. government much-needed revenue. When China is not as badly as large purchases of Treasury bonds, interest rates in the U.S. will have to increase to attract Chinese, such result will greatly improve the cost of the federal deficit to force the United States, mandatory politician had to serious face their long-term fiscal imbalances and seek solutions.

On behalf of the American large company interests of the American chamber of commerce with renminbi and condemning requirements of hk $practices for "decouple protectionism". But, retort, cancel la racaille Jones said before the currencies just turn protectionist policies.

Interestingly, if the U.S. government prompted RMB one-time big revaluation success, it may help the Chinese government to solve the current problems facing ─ ─ a society of soaring food prices. Crazy

Soon force of the yuan against the dollar decoupling can let the United States and China more had realized and solve their problems at hand, otherwise, when these problems intensified, they too late yi.

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