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Dollar could restore uptrend  

2011-05-12 19:28:18|  分类: 随笔 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Market is now a kind of favorite way is to make empty bets, the dollar likely $turn go high?

The reason is not believing dollars strong and is generally acceptable. The commodity futures trading commission (CFTC) the weekly report on monetary positions display, almost all the speculators are doing more than $empty, Japanese yen, the euro, the pound, Swiss francs and other currencies.

Since the start of the euro against the dollar has $1.30 to all the way from $1.40. The yen against the dollar exchange rate though, but this is roughly the same as in the seven major industrial countries jointly adopt special intervention pushed down only after the yen, after Japan realization of an earthquake yen dollar have repeatedly a record. CFTC data show that the yen/dollar net long positions increased 15% last week, to $53 billion.

Cause people to the prospect of a negative view of the $changing core factor is the short-term interest rate environment. The United States is still in executive super easy monetary policy, because monetary authorities take quantization loose measures, us short rates close to zero has been reduced to a minimum level of history. Meanwhile, other central Banks began to take measures to raise short-term interest rates, and gradually exit the financial crisis after the occurrence just started to take emergency measures.

Currency speculators often favours those who can provide higher investment returns, and currently hold dollars money the return on investment is zero, if the dollar falls, investment returns, will degenerate into negative.

The European Central Bank (Central European somebody) to rising prices increasing pressure on grounds, almost has promised to on April 7th next policy meeting decided to raise rates. As Britain current inflation rate than the Bank of England (from) set by somebody of 2% target twice as much, the Bank may be the fastest rate would rise may. Meanwhile, people expected the United States Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) will only interest rate hikes by the end of this year, but not eliminate it until 2012 hikes may begin.

And those so-called commodity currencies, the dollar fared even worse. By oil and metals and agricultural prices push, Canadian and Australian dollar exchange rate both have risen sharply.

The face of all these disadvantages, the dollar might just began to turn to uplink? Here are three things worth attention:

1. The fed and the second round of quantitative looser monetary policy. The fed the second round of quantitative easing debt purchase project is scheduled to end in June of this year. Recent extreme weakness in the U.S. housing market data has prompted some suggest it is necessary to implement the third round of quantitative easing.

But the fed's many officials to the implementation of implementing the third round the possibility of quantitative easing already began to produce more against means comments. Louis federal reserve bank governor James Bullard) brad (, said last week that the fed should even consider end the second round of quantitative easing. If the fed officials continued published this kind of speech, the dollar's popularity may have begun to change.

2. The eurozone's bad situation. The eurozone happened so many troubles and the euro rose, but this is a notable phenomenon. Ireland and Greece has in accepting aid, and current relief measure seems difficult to solve the problems between the two countries. Now the Portuguese because fiscal expenditure budget tightening failed, the country seems to be also will become the salved object, but the Portuguese government down is to make the situation worse.

Although the Portuguese days will need financial assistance, but eu officials as they slowly in the current situation of the development of the sovereign debt crisis, still as normally expression is a deputy at a loss of appearance. The parties remain in discussing various relief agencies to provide funds, and European atms Germany are faced with its own political party, its sudden one in the recent election loss.

Several rating agencies have cut them in Portuguese bond credit rating, if not a pen in Lisbon 45 billion of debt on April 15th prior to maturity, implement, if Portugal debt-repaying funds may show a debt default, although outside believe this situation are not likely to appear.

3. U.S. economic data. Put the most sufficient reason is $looser monetary policy of the federal reserve. If the us economy was still going strong, the difficulty of maintaining this policy will increase, saint Louis federal reserve bank governor brad in talking to shrink the second round the scale of quantitative looser monetary policy when they had hinted at this point. In march announced Friday U.S. employment data and ISM service-sector manufacturing survey data. If these two data are strong, the fed's policy ideas may begin to change, and the dollar's popularity may also have begun to change. But this hypothesis has great uncertainty, especially since the fed favored by the inflation situation indexes, namely not excluding food and energy, the core consumer price index rose still not what the symptom.

Dollar may not always be fall. Although the fed has been said America's inflation problem is not serious, but it may have begun to see the inflation outlook. Goldman Sachs Asset Management business (Asset Management) outlined in yesterday's chairman O 'neal (Jim O 'neill) in a report this week, said by the sides stress from the Michigan survey data look, people's inflation expectations on the rise, perhaps this has caused some people's attention. This, he says, a survey data must be careful concern, especially in the more reliable entity economy synchronous index and leading indicators still more robust. O 'neal said he still thinks the fed to change the dollar and euro dollar/yen exchange rates and position of cases, the dollar exchange rate can be very easy to turn up.


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